Reverse Martingale means doubling the stake on your winning!
Successful sports betting requires analysis and skill to make informed decisions, aspects completely ignored by the Martingale system.
I was convinced Manchester City would win the game so I decided to back the Citizens at the 10-minute interval goal-scored betting market. I kept the Martingale system doubling the stake on each bet lost aiming to bag a profit higher than the initial stake. That was only possible because the odds were significantly higher than 2.
References: Ting-Yuan Chen, and Szu-Lang Liao, Improved Martingale Betting System for Intraday Trading in Index Futures—Evidence of TAIEX Futures, Asian Journal of Economics and Business, Year:2023, Vol.4 (2), PP.339-366 AbstractIn this paper we have proposed an innovative intraday trading policy which originated from the standard Martingale gambling system with a stop policy.
In general, when using the Martingale Strategy:
The biggest drawback of sports betting in the Martingale style is that unlike the red/black of roulette, sports odds are never fixed and can fluctuate wildly. You’ll need to take this into account, if you’re betting on the same team who is constantly facing different challengers and compute your follow-on bets based on the changing odds landscape.
The **Markov property** refers to a characteristic of a stochastic process where the future state of the process depends only on the present state and not on the past states. This is also called **memoryless** property because the process doesn't "remember" its previous states beyond the current one.#### Key Points- The **future** is independent of the **past**, given the **present**.- Markov processes are often used in modeling systems where the future behavior is largely determined by the current situation (such as weather forecasting, queueing models, etc.).- A process with the Markov property is also referred to as a **Markov process**. ### Types of Markov Processes:1. **Discrete-time Markov Chains**: The process evolves in discrete time steps.2. **Continuous-time Markov Process**: The process evolves continuously over time (e.g., birth-death processes, Poisson processes).### Examples:- A simple **random walk**: The next step depends only on the current position and not on how you got there.- **Weather**: If the weather today is sunny, the probability of it being sunny tomorrow depends only on today's weather, not on the sequence of sunny or rainy days before today.### Martingale PropertyA **martingale** is a sequence of random variables that models a fair game, meaning that the conditional expectation of the next value, given all previous values, is equal to the current value. In simple terms, the future is expected to be the same as the present, given the past.#### Key Points- A **martingale** does not "drift" in any direction on average.- It captures the idea of a fair game where, if you have the current state, you cannot predict a "better" next state in expectation.- The martingale property is widely used in financial modeling (e.g., modeling stock prices) and in gambling theory.### Examples:- A fair **coin toss**: If the current position in a game is 0 (no gain or loss), the expected future position after a toss is still 0, since the coin toss is fair and there is no bias.- **Stock prices**: A simple model for stock prices is often considered a martingale under the assumption that there are no predictable trends (i.e., the best estimate of the future stock price, given all available information, is the current price).### Difference Between Markov Property and Martingale Property- **Markov Property**: Describes the dependence of future states on the current state alone, without regard to the past states.- **Martingale Property**: Describes a sequence where the expected future value, conditioned on the present, is the same as the current value. It doesn't necessarily require the future state to depend on just the present state, but that future values are expected to be "fair" or unbiased with respect to the present.
The limitations imposed by bookmakers, sports, and betting systems may range widely, as can the types of bets available.
The real limit of the Martingale system lies in its practical application. In the event of a bad series, the stakes quickly become very high. Using a classic martingale, a series of five losing bets at odds of 2 means that the stake on your 6th bet must equal 32 times the initial stake! Many bettors won’t necessarily maintain a large bankroll, or want to bet hefty sums, so this can be tricky.
Martingale ja panostusstrategiat
In fact, it’s slightly more probable for a losing streak to occur than a winning streak – not that a winning streak matters for the Grand Martingale betting system. The probability of four wins occurring in a row on a red or black bet on European roulette is 6.08 per cent. The probability of four consecutive losses on that same bet is 6.4 per cent.
How Does the Martingale System Work in Sports Betting
However, this losing streak would wipe out your profits, costing you $10,230 in the process. It just goes to show why Martingale strategy is very much a short-term option and not for the long run.
Comparing Betting Systems: Martingale vs. Fibonacci in Online Casino
Here's a table showing the probability of losing streaks of increasing length when betting on / in roulette. It also shows the amount you could lose when using the martingale system from a starting bet of $1:
An Evaluation of the Martingale Strategy in Gambling
If you wish to adapt the Martingale strategy for sports betting, you need to take the odds into account. Since the idea is to wager just enough to recuperate your losses on a losing streak, you need to calculate how much you can potentially win on each bet. The higher the decimal odds (or lower probability), the less you need to bet to potentially break even, the lower the odds, the more you need to bet to break even.
[D] Martingale betting strategy test with roulette wheel (R code)
As we've already touched upon, the Martingale strategy works best for casino games that offer 50/50 'coinflip' situations.
Is the martingale strategy legal on betting sites
I personally bet on the Numbers 1-12 / Numbers 13-24 / Numbers 25-36.
I'm going to repeat the same chart I made above for the Red / Black classic Martingale betting Strategy but use the new 2 to 1 odds we've introduced (still doubling our bet with each loss) and see what difference it makes.
WHOA!
What can the Martingale strategy teach us about betting
have been completed on the Martingale System in other games, such as roulette, and the majority of them have highlighted the fact that, like most strategies, it is mostly ineffective in the long-run.
The Grand Martingale Betting System Explained
Surprisingly, pure mathematics—which, through the probability laws, tells us that no winning strategy over the long run is possible for any game of chance—credits the martingale to be a sure winning strategy over the plays from the first bet to the first winning bet no matter the stake or the multiplier used. How is that possible? It is due to a simple algebraic certitude. Let’s stay with the bet on color and let S be the stake of your initial bet. Assume that n consecutive bets are lost and that the n + 1-th bet is won. The total amount lost before the n + 1-th bet is S + 2S + 4S + ... + 2n-1S = S (2n - 1) n S, and the last term in the inequality is the stake of the n + 1-th bet, assumed won and proven to be less than the total amount lost. Of course, the same result holds for similar types of even/odd or low/high bets.
The martingale betting system in roulette
Of course, this system isn't perfect—it’s just one option that works well for some bettors, which explains why it has staying power. Clearly, there are risks to begin with in the world of sports betting, the use of the Martingale system can augment those risks.